For most countries in the world, ICT industry is a major power consumer, which brings a lot of pressure to the carbon reduction goals of countries. Along with the influence of factors such as the COVID-19, geopolitics, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the trend of enterprise digital transformation, they have jointly promoted the rise of energy demand in the ICT industry 'How to embark on the road of sustainable development?' is the current focus of ICT industry.
For residents in the Northern Hemisphere, the persistent and abnormal high temperature in the summer of 2022 is still fresh in my mind. According to media reports, the highest temperature in Greenland in the Arctic Circle this summer exceeded 15 ℃, which further promoted global residents to pay attention to the concept of 'carbon peaking' and 'carbon neutralization' (double carbon).
For most countries in the world, ICT industry is a major power consumer, which brings a lot of pressure to the carbon reduction goals of countries. Along with the influence of factors such as the COVID-19, geopolitics, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the trend of enterprise digital transformation, they have jointly promoted the rise of energy demand in the ICT industry 'How to embark on the road of sustainable development?' is the current focus of ICT industry.
At the recent '10th Annual China Hard Science and Technology Media Forum and Industry Chain Research and Innovation Trend Outlook Seminar', Wang Shen, the chief consultant of Omdia Company in China, made an outlook analysis on the development trend of ICT industry, and he concluded: 'Green ICT can move a larger green world.'
Determination of zero carbon emission targets in various countries
In 1798, Britain was faced with the dilemma of food shortage. Thomas Malthus, a British political and economic scientist, put forward that 'population growth is a geometric progression, while living resources are only an arithmetic progression. The increased population will always be eliminated in some way, and the population cannot exceed the corresponding level of agricultural development.' It was called the 'Malthus Trap', which also applies to today's energy crisis, That is, how to choose between resources and development.
Wang Shen said that the current dilemma facing mankind is the emission of greenhouse gases, 'Every year, countries all over the world emit about 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Take the carbon emissions of the United States in 2020 as an example. Most of the emissions come from cars, which consume gasoline and emit carbon dioxide. About one third of the emissions come from the power industry, which has many power generation methods, mainly combustion based power generation. The combustion of industry, consumers, and other non fossil materials accounts for a small proportion of emissions.'
In the summer of 2022, the global abnormal high temperature phenomenon has sounded an alarm for mankind - mankind must set an upper limit on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, and then gradually reduce the total emissions to an acceptable range. Wang Shen pointed out that in order to achieve the goal of carbon emission, it is not only necessary to reduce carbon at the individual level, but also more important to implement carbon emission goals at the national level. As shown on the left of the above figure, during 2015-2017, less than 10 countries in the world made carbon emission commitments. By Q1 2021, 44 countries in the world have committed to the Net zero emission target, accounting for about 70% of global carbon dioxide and GDP. Net zero emission means that the carbon absorbed and the carbon emitted can offset each other to achieve the goal of zero carbon emission. Among them, 10 countries have made it a legal obligation to achieve the net zero goal, 8 countries are planning to make it a legal obligation, and the rest have made commitments in official policy documents.
Only international cooperation can achieve the goal of zero carbon emissions as soon as possible. The red line on the right of the above figure represents that 'if all countries jointly promote the carbon emission goal, the western countries will probably achieve net zero emissions by 2050 as early as possible', and the white dotted line represents that 'if there is no international carbon emission cooperation, it will take 2090 years to achieve net zero emissions'. China's dual carbon policy is to achieve 'carbon peak' in 2030 and 'carbon neutrality' in 2060, while many western countries require to achieve the goal of 'carbon neutrality' in 2025.
In the communication industry, the base station accounts for about 70% of the total energy consumption of the mobile network, and the growth of mobile data traffic has led to a rapid increase in the energy consumption of the mobile base station. For example, in the past decade, mobile phone users have consumed tens of MB of traffic per month, instead of tens of GB of traffic per month, which has brought great pressure on operators to save energy and reduce emissions. At present, most telecom operators have set corresponding goals to achieve zero net emissions at the company level by 2050, while more advanced operators have advanced this time to 2030.
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What challenges does zero carbon emission face?
n the process of implementing the zero carbon emission roadmap, countries have not always been smooth. For example, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the global data flow blowout have brought many challenges to zero carbon emissions.
·Russia Ukraine conflict
Wang Shen said that the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine is a major setback currently facing. 'The sharp fluctuations in European energy prices have brought great challenges to the energy security and cost control of various industries in the region. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the shortage of natural gas in European countries. From the price of natural gas, the price of natural gas in Europe was less than 200 euros per megawatt hour (1 megawatt hour equals 1000 kilowatts, or 1000 kilowatt hours of electricity), and now more than 1000 euros per megawatt hour, or about 1 euro per kilowatt hour of electricity“
However, he also believed that the 'Russia Ukraine conflict' did not have a particularly big impact on European energy: first, Europe's long-term green power policy has brought a buffer, so that a large energy gap will not suddenly appear; Secondly, only about 20% of the electricity consumption in the whole EU comes from natural gas, mainly for small boilers burning hot water for heating, rather than for power generation. 'The 'Russia Ukraine conflict' will have a greater psychological impact on everyone than the real impact. Operators, including other industries in Europe, will have a very big uncertainty. People will doubt what kind of energy status they will face in the future, which will bring great changes to the energy security and cost control of various industries.'
Fortunately, Europe has made some achievements on the path of sustainable energy development. At present, about 39% of the EU power grid comes from green electricity, such as about 70% of French nuclear electricity, 45% of German nuclear electricity, and more than 40% of Spain's sustainable energy. Now, about 70% of China's electricity comes from thermal power generation, and more than 90% of these thermal power generation is obtained by burning coal. Wang Shen believes that Europe's advantages in sustainable energy are inseparable from its long-term promotion of green energy.
After the Russian Ukrainian conflict broke out, European countries announced sanctions against Russia, and most European countries could not purchase natural gas from Russia. In the short term, many European countries and industries have increased the use of coal energy, and European people are also using charcoal for heating, which will produce very large carbon dioxide emissions. However, in the long run, this will on the contrary accelerate the policy of carbon reduction. As mentioned above, only 20% of the European power structure comes from natural gas. In the general direction, the European energy crisis will accelerate the transformation of its 'carbon neutral' direction. 'carbon neutral' also means energy self-sufficiency. To ensure energy security, we cannot rely solely on foreign unsustainable energy.
·Global data flow blowout
The global data flow blowout is the second challenge. According to Omdia's prediction, the global data traffic will increase rapidly from 2017 to 2024, and it is expected to reach 5.8 million PB per year by 2024, which is equivalent to 7000 photos uploaded by every person in the world every day. 'The rise of data flow brings new pressure to the ICT industry. On the one hand, it faces energy shortage and rising costs, on the other hand, it also faces strong downstream demand. If it continues to turn to the next generation of communications, energy demand will continue to grow, and if it continues to use fossil fuels for power generation, it will bring more carbon dioxide emissions, which will bring great challenges to ICT enterprises to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.' Wang Shen said.